Tropical Storm Rafael is on the verge of developing, and the National Hurricane Center predicts it will become a hurricane by late election day.
The tropical depression in the Caribbean is currently known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. However, it will be officially named Tropical Storm Rafael once it reaches tropical storm strength today. The storm is predicted to move towards the Gulf Coast and may make landfall in either Louisiana or Mississippi on Saturday.
The storm is currently experiencing wind speeds of 35 mph, which is just below the tropical storm threshold of 39 mph. There is a possibility that it could strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday evening as it continues to move northwest, passing by Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the disturbance is projected to transform into a tropical storm today and approach Jamaica tonight and Tuesday. The NHC has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica. As per the forecast discussion, there is a possibility that the system could intensify into a hurricane by Tuesday night. This poses a potential risk of hazardous effects, including hurricane-force winds and storm surge, in the Cayman Islands and parts of western Cuba.
The Cayman Islands are currently under a Hurricane Watch, indicating the possibility of hurricane conditions in the area. Meanwhile, Jamaica is under a Tropical Storm Warning, signaling the expected arrival of tropical storm-force winds. Typically, hurricane watches are issued 48 hours prior to the onset of such winds.
Hurricanes, which have wind speeds of 74 mph or higher, typically occur during the Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30. It is worth noting that November hurricanes are incredibly uncommon, as only three hurricanes have made landfall in the United States during this month since 1851.
Rafael is anticipated to bring up to 9 inches of rain to certain areas of Jamaica and Cuba this week, which could potentially result in flooding and mudslides.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the system is expected to bring heavy rain to the western Caribbean, specifically Jamaica and parts of Cuba, throughout the middle of the week. This could lead to flooding in these areas, with the possibility of mudslides. The NHC also warns that the heavy rainfall will then move northwards, affecting Florida and the surrounding areas in the Southeast United States later in the week.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), there are significant uncertainties regarding the long-range forecast track and intensity of the system. Although it is expected to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, it is still too early to determine the potential impacts, if any.
According to Mathew Barlow, a professor of environmental, earth and atmospheric sciences at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center take into account various factors to determine the probabilities of a storm’s development. These factors include the storm’s structure, the favorable conditions surrounding it, and the forecasts from multiple computer models. As Barlow told Newsweek, these considerations play a crucial role in forecasting the potential impact of a hurricane.
The expertise and experience of forecasters are crucial in combining all available information to create the most accurate forecasts. Since each computer model has its own strengths and weaknesses, and the factors influencing their development can be complicated, it is vital to rely on the knowledge and skills of forecasters.
Rafael was originally expected to be named Tropical Storm Patty. However, another storm in the northern Atlantic became a tropical storm first and took the name Patty. As a result, this storm in the Caribbean was officially named Rafael, becoming the 18th named storm of the year.