Brief Overview:
The Ohio Valley is anticipating severe thunderstorms from early afternoon to evening, with damaging winds, hail, and a few possible tornadoes being the main impact. For more information regarding timing and further details, please see below.
Impacted States and Cities: Ohio, including Columbus and Cincinnati, Indiana with Indianapolis, and Kentucky with Louisville, are affected.
Detailed Forecast: Here’s a comprehensive forecast that provides detailed information about the weather conditions in your area.
On early Tuesday morning, an upper-level trough will stretch across the central U.S. The southeastern portion of this trough over the Arklatex area will contain the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Beryl. The trough is expected to progress eastward modestly throughout the day, while the remnants of Beryl will follow within the eastern periphery of the trough, moving through the Mid-Mississippi and Lower/Mid-Ohio Valleys. Wind shear will be enhanced, with values around 40-50 knots in the 0-6 km layer, which will support organized storm structures, including supercells that can create severe weather.
The instability values in eastern Texas and western Louisiana are expected to reach 1500-2500 J/kg. This is due to the tropical airmass that Beryl brings, which will bring in dewpoints in the 70s into the Mid-Mississippi and Lower/Mid-Ohio Valleys just ahead of the surface low. This will contribute to destabilization and modest buoyancy, despite the widespread cloud cover.
Timing:
Anticipate thunderstorms throughout the day, particularly in the northeastern quadrant of the system. The lift in this area will be augmented by convergence along the warm front. The highest risk for tornadoes is projected to be along the southern Ohio River vicinity from late afternoon to early evening before gradually shifting northeastward into southern Indiana and the Louisville area by early night.
The main impact of the weather conditions would be damaging winds, large hail, and a few isolated tornadoes. There is also a possibility of lightning strikes.
Be sure to keep an eye out for further updates.