The anticipated arrival of the La Niña weather phenomenon has become a key topic among skiers as Winter 2024-2025 approaches.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) initially forecasted La Niña earlier this year, but the phenomenon has yet to develop.
In its updated El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion released on December 12, 2024, NOAA confirmed that sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean remained near average throughout November. This condition, known as ENSO-Neutral or colloquially as “La Nada,” has persisted.
While La Niña did not materialize in November, NOAA maintains moderate confidence that a “weak La Niña” could emerge by January 2025, with a 59% probability. By spring, from March to May 2025, the agency predicts a 61% chance of a return to ENSO-Neutral conditions.
NOAA emphasizes that even if La Niña forms this winter, its impacts are expected to be “weak and short-lived.” Although weak La Niñas generally produce less significant weather effects than stronger ones, they can still influence regional climates.
Ski resorts in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) are particularly hopeful for any form of La Niña, as the cooler sea surface temperatures typically bring increased moisture and cold air to the region. This often results in a wet and chilly winter along the coast and a snowy winter in the mountains, creating ideal skiing conditions.
Elsewhere in the western United States, the effects of La Niña are harder to predict. Resorts in Arizona, New Mexico, and southern Colorado often experience reduced snowfall during La Niña years, while the Sierra Nevada, Wasatch Range, and Northern Rockies face variable outcomes.
Despite the absence of an official La Niña declaration, early-season snowfall has been favorable in the Pacific Northwest. Resorts such as Mt. Bachelor, Timberline, and Mt. Baker have all benefited from deep November snow, with Mt. Bachelor opening its Summit earlier than it has in a decade.
Meanwhile, the broader western U.S. is finally emerging from a prolonged high-pressure system, as snowfall begins to return to mountain ranges across the region.
The question remains whether these developments signal the arrival of a weak La Niña. Skiers and weather watchers alike are keeping a close eye on conditions, as NOAA and meteorologists continue to monitor the phenomenon throughout the season.